Senator John F. Kerry has a slim 1-point lead over incumbent President George W. Bush (46% to 45%) while 9% are undecided or committed to other candidates, based on the IowaLife Survey conducted October 14-19 by Central Surveys, Inc. of Shenandoah, Iowa for the Iowa Newspaper Association. In contrast, incumbent Senator Charles Grassley leads Democratic challenger Art Small by a margin of 67% to 23% with 10% undecided.

Poll results are based on 502 interviews conducted by telephone with a random sample of Iowa registered voters who say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote in the November 2^nd Presidential election. The margin of error for this statewide poll is + 4.4 percentage points. Survey findings suggest that the pivotal issue determining whether Iowans will vote for Kerry or Bush is whether or not they agree with the decision to go to war in Iraq. Most (79%) of those who agree with the decision to go to war plan to vote for Bush, while 84% of those who disagree with the decision to go to war in Iraq plan to vote for Kerry.

Based on the sample of 502 Iowa voters, 50% agree with the decision to go to war in Iraq and 46% disagree with this decision, while 4% are undecided. Predictably, opinions about the war in Iraq follow party lines (81% of Republicans agree and 77% of Democrats disagree). Nonpartisan voters are evenly split (48% to 48%) on this question.

By a ratio of 2 to 1, Democrats also disapprove of sending Iowa National Guard troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. In sharp contrast, Republicans approve of sending National Guard troops abroad by a ratio of more than 4 to 1. Nonpartisan voters are evenly split (48% approve and 46% disapprove).

Iowans are more concerned about the economy and domestic issues than about foreign policy and national security issues by a ratio of 3 to 2. Those who are more concerned about the economy and domestic issues are more likely to vote for Kerry than for Bush by a margin of 55% to 34%. In contrast, those who are more concerned about foreign policy and national security are more likely to vote for Bush (64%) than for Kerry (28%).

Iowans are more likely to express concern about the rising cost and access to health care (56%) than about the availability of quality jobs (27%); most of the remaining voters (15%) say both are of equal concern to them. Two-thirds are either "not secure" (26%) or only "somewhat secure" (41%) regarding their ability to pay for health care or health insurance. Less than one-third (31%) feel "very secure" about this.

Only 12% express satisfaction with the bill passed by Congress giving prescription drug coverage to seniors as a Medicare benefit. Three-fourths (73%) say more needs to be done to make prescription drugs available and affordable to senior citizens.

Considering other domestic issues, 54% say tax cuts should be only for low- and middle-income families, while 42% favor across-the-board tax cuts for everybody. Iowans are more likely to believe the "No Child Left Behind Act" has hurt (42%) rather than helped (31%) Iowa schools to deliver higher quality education to students. The remainder express no opinion or say the act has had no impact.

Iowans are more concerned about homeland security than about the U.S. image and relationships abroad, by a margin of 66% to 24%. More Iowans agree (49%) than disagree (43%) that Americans are safer today on U.S. soil than before September 11, 2001. Iowans age 54 or under are more likely than are older Iowans to agree that Americans are safer today on U.S. soil than before September 11, 2001. Consistent with findings on the Iraq issue, Bush supporters and Republicans tend to agree that Americans are safer than before September 11, 2001, while Kerry supporters and Democrats take the opposite view. Two-thirds of Iowa voters (66%) disagree rather than agree (29%) that the world is a safer place today than it was before September 11, 2001.

Iowans living in urban/suburban areas of Iowa are more likely to vote for Kerry (56%) than for Bush (39%). In contrast, Iowans living in rural areas favor Bush (53%) over Kerry (34%). Those living in small towns are about evenly split (47% for Kerry and 45% for Bush).

Men and women do not differ significantly in their level of preference for the candidates, but there is a distinct age pattern. Voters age 25 to 44 are significantly more likely to vote for Bush (57%) than for Kerry (35%) while those age 45 to 54 are about evenly split on the two candidates. Voters age 18 to 24 and those 55 or older are significantly more likely to vote for Kerry than for Bush. (Voters age 18 to 24 favor Kerry over Bush by a margin of 58% to 36%, and those 55 or older favor Kerry over Bush by a margin of 54% to 37%).

Voters age 18 to 24 express the strongest opposition to the war in Iraq, perhaps due to acquaintance with peers who are serving or have served in Iraq or Afghanistan. Older voters are less likely than are middle-aged voters to agree with the decision to go to war in Iraq, perhaps because they lived through the Vietnam War experience. Voters age 55 or older are significantly more likely than younger Iowans to say they are "worse off" financially than they were four years ago.

The survey included a series of questions asking which candidate displays better leadership traits or would be better qualified for various responsibilities of the Presidency. Bush appears to lead Kerry in every category tested except for improving the economy and creating jobs. Bush's weakness appears to be handling of the economy. On the other hand, if Kerry wins, he will enter the office without the confidence of many Iowans in regard to his leadership skills, judgment, decisiveness, and ability to conduct foreign policy and keep America safe.